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South Korean Trade Minister Yoo Myung-hee holds a press conference at the World Trade Organization headquarters in Geneva, Switzerland, on Oct. 16. (Yonhap News)

The second round of selecting the next director-general of the World Trade Organization (WTO), in which the final two candidates will be chosen, will conclude on Oct. 6. A South Korean government task force under Blue House policy chief Kim Sang-jo has been mobilizing all available resources in its campaign for the selection of Yoo Myung-hee, South Korea’s current Trade Minister.

South Korean President Moon Jae-in has been asking the leaders of WTO member states to support Yoo’s candidacy. Moon made that appeal to German Chancellor Angela Merkel in a phone call on Oct. 1 and sent a letter containing a similar message to Swedish Prime Minister Stefan Lofven on Oct. 4.

Yoo lobbied for support in the second round of the selection process in Geneva, Switzerland, and Stockholm, Sweden, between Sept. 27 and Oct. 2. On her trip to Europe, she met with minister-level officials from 15 European countries and WTO ambassadors from several countries who are stationed in Geneva. Europe has generally played a leading role in the WTO.

The candidates who have made it to the second round are Yoo Myung-hee; Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, former managing director of the World Bank Group from Nigeria; Amina Mohamed, former chair of the WTO’s council from Kenya; Mohammad Maziad Al-Tuwaijri, Saudi Arabia’s former minister of economy and planning; and Liam Fox, the UK’s former secretary of state for international trade.

During the second round, the three candidates that member states are least likely to reach consensus on will be removed from consideration, with the two remaining candidates advancing to the third and final round. Currently, Yoo appears to be one of the top three contenders, along with the other two female candidates, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala and Amina Mohamed.

Okonjo-Iweala is regarded as a political heavyweight in the international community for her 25 years of experience at the World Bank, while Mohamed, who chaired the WTO council in 2015, is thought to have considerable clout in the field of international trade. The final two candidates are likely to be announced as early as Oct. 8.

Thus far, movers and shakers at the WTO — including the EU, the US, and China — have refrained from making any comments about which candidate they support. In the second round of selection, each of the WTO’s 164 member states will voice a preference for one or two candidates.

Considering that EU member states have agreed on unity in their preference (for either one or two candidates), the biggest question for Koreans is whether Yoo will be one of the EU’s preferred candidates or whether both will be Africans. The US and China are likely to start trying to groom a specific candidate after the field has been winnowed down to the final two.

If Yoo is one of the final two candidates, the focus would shift away from selecting the WTO’s first African director-general, which would likely make her the frontrunner. Overseas media has quoted multiple sources as saying that China reportedly favors Mohamed. China is one of the biggest trading partners, investors, and creditors in Kenya and other African countries.

Another major factor is the growing likelihood that Joe Biden, the Democratic candidate, will win the US presidential election on Nov. 3. Trade ministers from the G20 countries recently said they look forward to working with all WTO member states to ensure that the WTO director-general selection process is completed by Nov. 7. In other words, the next director-general is likely to be chosen several days after the US presidential election.

On Oct. 4, the Korea International Trade Association (KITA) published a report comparing the trade platforms of Biden and Trump in the 2020 US presidential election. “Biden’s advocacy of multilateral trade fuels expectations that he will reorganize the WTO to rebuild the multilateral trade system,” the KITA said in its report. “Since Biden has sharply criticized China’s violations of international trade norms, he’s expected to use the WTO system to put multi-pronged pressure on China.”

Given predictions that a Biden administration would use the WTO system to counter China and that China will support an African candidate, some think that the US will end up favoring the Korean candidate.

By Cho Kye-wan, staff reporter

Please direct comments or questions to [english@hani.co.kr]