[News analysis] Yoo Myung-hee’s chances of becoming WTO director-general narrow, but race isn’t over yet

Posted on : 2020-10-28 18:04 KST Modified on : 2020-10-28 18:04 KST
All EU countries throw support behind Nigerian candidate, but Yoo has broader support distribution
South Korean Trade Minister Yoo Myung-hee and former Nigerian Finance Minister Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, the last two candidates in the bid to become the World Trade Organization’s next director-general. (Yonhap News/Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala’s website)
South Korean Trade Minister Yoo Myung-hee and former Nigerian Finance Minister Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, the last two candidates in the bid to become the World Trade Organization’s next director-general. (Yonhap News/Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala’s website)

The final round of voting for the next director-general of the World Trade Organization (WTO) wrapped up on Oct. 27, but the winner is not expected to be decided immediately. South Korean Minister for Trade Yoo Myung-hee is at a disadvantage with the European Union (EU) nations choosing to back former Nigerian Finance Minister Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala -- but if the victory is not a blowout for either of the candidates, the results could end up differing according to the distribution of support. Another potential variable is the US’ decision to endorse Yoo.

According to the South Korean Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA), a WTO survey of its 164 member countries’ preferences for the next director-general that began on Oct. 19 was set to conclude as of midnight on Oct. 27. The AFP and other foreign news outlets have reported that the EU countries had finished gathering opinions on the election as of Oct. 26 and planned to publicly announce their support for Okonjo-Iweala on Oct. 27. Hungary, Slovakia, and five other European countries had backed Yoo to the final stages, but with the EU’s decision to submit a consensus opinion, all 27 votes are set to go Okonjo-Iweala’s way.

In response to the news, the South Korean government, which had determined that very morning that Yoo had the support of around 77 countries, announced that it had recalculated the number of votes. It now believes she has the support of around 70 members. With Okonjo-Iweala having claimed in an Oct. 16 press briefing to have the support of 79 countries, the backing of the 27 EU members would put her over the top.

While Yoo is definitely at a disadvantage, the South Korean government insisted that the election is not over. The WTO director-general is chosen by a consensus decision, which means that a simple majority vote does not seal the result. Another potential question includes whether the candidate receives an even distribution of votes not just by region but also by level of economic development.

In the event that one candidate holds an overwhelming lead in the final preference survey, WTO General Council Chair David Walker, who is supervising the election, will recommend that the candidate with less support bow out. But if the vote is close, he will begin efforts to achieve a consensus, which will take the vote distribution into account. Yoo reportedly plans to remain in the race if this kind of situation emerges. Walker has signaled his intent to have the entire process complete by Nov. 7.

Yoo is known to have a broad base of support among Asian countries besides Japan, South and Central American countries, some African countries, and non-EU countries in Europe. With the US Donald Trump administration actively supporting her since last weekend, she has reportedly picked up the backing of Brazil, Israel, and some Caribbean countries. In contrast, some observers are noting that while Okonjo-Iweala has bloc votes from Africa and the EU, her support is not as broadly distributed as Yoo’s. The election could end up hinging on the weight of support from the US, China, and other major countries amid the consensus-building efforts that ensue based on the results of the preference survey through Oct. 27.

“We are working at the pan-governmental level from the position that the final decision has not yet emerged and that we need to do our best to the end,” MOFA Deputy Spokesperson Lee Jae-woong said in a regular briefing that day. MOFA appears to be continuing its campaign through the final stages, with President Moon Jae-in calling for support in a telephone conversation the same day with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.

By Kim Ji-eun, staff reporter

Please direct comments or questions to [english@hani.co.kr]

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