Is North Korea planning a fourth nuclear test?

Posted on : 2014-04-22 15:44 KST Modified on : 2014-04-22 15:44 KST
Heightened activity at test site could be a show to grab attention before Obama’s visit to Seoul this week

By Kim Oi-hyun, staff reporter

Something is afoot at Punggye Village in Kilju County, North Hamkyong Province, the site where North Korea has conducted three previous nuclear tests. Photographic evidence indicates that traffic at the site has been rapidly increasing recently.

“Activity is increasing around the nuclear test site at Punggye Village. This is a different level of movement than before,” said a South Korean military officer on condition of anonymity on Apr. 21.

“By analyzing satellite footage, South Korean and American intelligence authorities have detected a major buildup in vehicle movement from about a month ago,” another anonymous government official said.

Still, it appears too early to start counting down to a fourth North Korean nuclear test. As a general rule, the signs of an imminent nuclear test are: installing equipment for detecting and measuring seismic waves, running a communication cable between the measuring equipment and the aboveground control post, and filling in the excavated area with dirt. The government official said that these signs have not yet been detected.

At present, Pyongyang’s activities may not portend an immediate nuclear test, but could instead be part of a strategy to grab American attention before US President Barack Obama visits South Korea on Apr. 25 and Apr. 26. If the North wanted to make clandestine preparations for a nuclear test, it could do the work at night, when such movements could not be captured by satellites. The activity can be seen as a kind of “open protest” intended to bring the North Korean nuclear program to the fore of the US agenda.

“As long as the US regards us as an enemy, it is the DPRK’s policy to spur on efforts to use every available means to strengthen our just self-defensive deterrent through which we can firmly counter American behavior,” North Korea said in a statement released by the spokesperson of the its Foreign Ministry. North Korea is sending a message to the US through words and actions. For this reason, the prediction is also being made that North Korea could carry out a nuclear test if no breakthrough is reached even after Obama’s visit to South Korea.

North Korea hinted at the possibility of a fourth nuclear test on Mar. 30, when it mentioned a new type of nuclear test.

 

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